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29,943 | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | The [International Criminal Court (ICC)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) was founded in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and as of October 2024, it [has indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_indicted_in_the_International_Criminal_Court) a total of 63 individuals.
As the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily. In May 2024, the ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan [filled applications](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-khan-kc-applications-arrest-warrants-situation-state) for warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ex-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as the now-dead Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh. As of 11 November 2024, no warrants for these individuals have been issued. | yes | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 294 |
29,916 | Will the United Nations have exactly 193 member states on December 31, 2024? | As of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.
Joining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generally slow and deliberate, reflecting the organization's role in recognizing sovereign states on the global stage.
Potential candidates for UN membership include:
1. Palestine: Currently a non-member observer state.
2. Kosovo: Partially recognized, but not a UN member.
3. Taiwan: Though it functions as an independent state, its UN membership is complicated by China's position.
4. South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Breakaway regions from Georgia with limited recognition.
5. Northern Cyprus: Only recognized by Turkey.
Additionally, new states could potentially emerge through independence movements or the dissolution of existing states.
Factors to consider when forecasting:
- Historical rate of UN membership growth (e.g., the last new member, South Sudan, joined in 2011)
- Current geopolitical tensions and conflicts
- Ongoing independence movements
- Diplomatic efforts of aspiring member states
- The veto power of permanent Security Council members | yes | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | resolved | 299 |
29,915 | Before 2025, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?
| OpenAI Inc., a Delaware 501(c)3 nonprofit corporation, was founded in late 2015. At its [inception](https://web.archive.org/web/20151222103150/https://openai.com/blog/introducing-openai/), OpenAI's mission and corporate structure were intended to maximize and broadly distribute the benefits of AI for humanity while minimizing the risks of such a potentially transformative—and possibly harmful—technology.
The [tumultuous events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI#2023%E2%80%93present:_Brief_departure_of_Altman_and_Brockman) of November 17-21, 2023 culminated in a [reconstitution](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/22/sam-altmans-back-heres-whos-on-the-new-openai-board-and-whos-out.html) of the nonprofit's board of directors and, along with it, [speculation](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/22/technology/openai-board-capitalists.html) regarding whether the company's original mission and structure will remain intact. | no | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | resolved | 300 |
29,914 | Will Kalshi outrank the Wells Fargo Mobile App in the top free Finance apps on December 31, 2024? | This question represents an unfolding of events in which Kalshi has spectular near-term success in building its userbase, as surpassing the Wells Fargo app (currently ranked #13) would be considered quite a feat for a prediction market app. On October 11, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/1844770826446319930) that Kalshi's app had surpassed Coinbase in the rankings, in the wake of Kalshi enabling betting on the US election. In addition, Kalshi has also announced it would pay interest on user deposits. | no | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | resolved | 301 |
29,912 | Will Arkansas have 1 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024? | [Drought conditions impact Little Rock businesses, locals](https://www.kark.com/news/local-news/drought-conditions-impact-little-rock-businesses-locals/) | yes | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | resolved | 303 |
29,911 | Will Kelsea Ballerini or Lainey Wilson win the 2024 CMA Award for Female Vocalist of the Year? | [58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards) | yes | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | resolved | 304 |
29,910 | Will Google have over a 90% global search engine market share, according to StatCounter, on December 31, 2024? | For further context particularly about Google's competition against Bing and its effect on market share please see [Bing vs Google: Search Engine Comparison 2024](https://www.impressiondigital.com/blog/bing-differ-google/) | no | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | resolved | 305 |
29,834 | Will Nebraska have 1.5 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024? | [No improvement for ongoing drought in Omaha](https://www.wowt.com/2024/10/24/no-improvement-ongoing-drought-omaha/) | yes | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | resolved | 314 |
29,833 | Will Chris Stapleton win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories? | [58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards) | yes | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | resolved | 315 |
29,831 | Will the Hudson Bay Mountain ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 8, 2024? | In 2023 a [historic drought](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/el-nino-drought-bc-interior-ski-hills-1.7043016) caused [delays](https://www.interior-news.com/local-news/lack-of-snow-forces-hudson-bay-mountain-resort-to-delay-opening-7116185) in opening. | yes | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | resolved | 317 |
29,830 | Will Dogecoin close at $0.420 a share before January 1, 2025? | Dogecoin's intraday price reached $0.43457 on November 12, 2024. See also The Economic Times: [Dogecoin outperforms Bitcoin and Ether, rises 145% since Trump's US election victory](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/dogecoin-outperforms-bitcoin-and-ether-rises-145-since-trumps-us-election-victory/articleshow/115209313.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst) | yes | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | resolved | 318 |
29,829 | Will Lainey Wilson or Luke Combs win the 2024 CMA Award forEntertainer of the Year? | [58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards) | no | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | resolved | 319 |
29,828 | Will Alabama have 2.0 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024? | [Drought worsens with little change in the weather pattern expected
](https://www.wdhn.com/weather/drought-worsens-with-little-change-in-the-weather-pattern-expected/) | no | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | resolved | 320 |
29,781 | Will the S&P 500 index go up in December 2024? | The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy. | no | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | resolved | 325 |
29,780 | Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix? | At the launch of this question, Tech Crunch did not have Netflix listed on its tracker as having had any material layoffs in 2024. In recent years Netflix has had sporadic layoffs, generally numbered in the hundreds, such as in 2023 and 2022 | no | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | resolved | 326 |
29,779 | Will Morgan Wallen win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories? | [58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards) | yes | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | resolved | 327 |
29,778 | Will Helldivers 2 win in any of these categories at the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards?
| [All the Golden Joystick Award 2024 Nominees](https://www.gfinityesports.com/article/all-the-golden-joystick-award-nominees-2024) | yes | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | resolved | 328 |
29,777 | Will Trump Media & Technology Group (the owner of Truth Social) stock continuously remain below its all-time high before January 1, 2025? | Reuters: [Harris vs Trump: Stocks to watch as White House race enters final stretch](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/harris-vs-trump-stocks-watch-white-house-race-enters-final-stretch-2024-11-01/) | yes | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | resolved | 329 |
29,775 | Will the Alta ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on November 22, 2024? | From the resolution source: "The Vail snow report for Nov 01 is a 0" base depth with 0 of 33 lifts open. Please note ski conditions and snowfall at Vail are sourced directly from the ski resort and are only recorded during the official ski season's opening to closing dates." | yes | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | resolved | 331 |
29,774 | Will the cheapest new Tesla Model 3 be listed as under $43,000 on December 30, 2024? | As of November 11, 2024, this price was $42,490 | yes | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | resolved | 332 |
29,773 | Will the Federal Register list 3 or more executive orders by President Joe Biden for November 2024? | Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions) | no | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | resolved | 333 |
29,771 | Will the Federal Register list exactly zero executive orders by President Joe Biden for November 2024? | Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions) | no | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | resolved | 335 |
29,744 | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | The [International Criminal Court (ICC)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) was founded in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and as of October 2024, it [has indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_indicted_in_the_International_Criminal_Court) a total of 63 individuals.
As the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily. In May 2024, the ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan [filled applications](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-khan-kc-applications-arrest-warrants-situation-state) for warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ex-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as the now-dead Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh. As of 11 November 2024, no warrants for these individuals have been issued. | yes | 2024-11-21T11:45:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | resolved | 337 |
29,743 | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | [The Game Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards), launched in 2014 and founded by video game journalist Geoff Keighley, are widely recognized as one of the most prestigious annual events in the video game industry. The Game of the Year (GOTY) award honors a game that delivers the best experience across both creative and technical aspects. The nominations for GOTY 2024 are expected to be announced in mid November.
[Astro Bot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro_Bot) is a 2024 platform video game developed by Team Asobi and published by Sony Interactive Entertainment for the PlayStation 5. It is a sequel to [Astro's Playroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro%27s_Playroom) and the first game featuring the character not to be developed by Japan Studio due to its dissolution. The game was released in celebration of PlayStation's 30th anniversary and, as of November 2024, has sold 1.5 million units. It has received universal acclaim from critics, with a score of 94 on [Metacritic](https://www.metacritic.com/game/astro-bot/), and is widely considered a favourite of for GOTY. | yes | 2024-12-11T12:00:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | resolved | 338 |
29,729 | Will either major party candidate in California’s 22nd Congressional District concede the election before December 1, 2024? | In the 2022 midterms, CA-22 was one of the slowest elections to be called, with the Democratic challenger [conceding](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/22/politics/california-22-valadao-salas/index.html) on November 22, 2022. See also: [Why does it take California so long to count votes?](https://calmatters.org/politics/elections/2024/03/california-election-results-vote-counting/) | yes | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-11T15:30:00Z | resolved | 342 |
29,728 | Will Jelly Roll win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories? | [58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards) | no | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-11T15:30:00Z | resolved | 343 |
29,727 | Will Texas have 15.0 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024? | Much of Texas is experiencing varying levels of drought at the time of this question. For example: [Moderate drought spreads across East Texas](https://www.cbs19.tv/article/weather/weather-impact/drought-spreads-across-east-texas/501-c803993d-40df-46a1-9cef-e8d741049647) | yes | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-11T15:30:00Z | resolved | 344 |
29,716 | Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be less than 585 on November 29, 2024? | Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued rig counts to the oil & gas industry since 1944. | yes | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-11T15:30:00Z | resolved | 355 |
29,715 | Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be greater than or equal to 585 and less than or equal to 590 on November 29, 2024? | Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued rig counts to the oil & gas industry since 1944. | no | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-11T15:30:00Z | resolved | 356 |
29,714 | Will the number of active US drilling rigs exceed 590 on November 29, 2024? | Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued rig counts to the oil & gas industry since 1944. | no | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-11T15:30:00Z | resolved | 357 |
29,648 | Will Matt Eberflus cease to be the Chicago Bears head coach before January 1, 2025? | Yahoo Sports: [Bears fans are once again fed up with Matt Eberflus, coaching staff](https://sports.yahoo.com/bears-fans-once-again-fed-222243082.html) | yes | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | resolved | 369 |
29,647 | On November 29, 2024, Will Apple have the largest market cap in the world? | As of October 5, 2024, Apple was the #1 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source. | yes | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | resolved | 370 |
29,641 | Will 12-15 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024? | Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.
The announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day). | yes | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | resolved | 376 |
29,640 | Will 10 or 11 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024? | Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.
The announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day). | no | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | resolved | 377 |
29,639 | Will 8 or 9 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024? | Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.
The announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day). | no | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | resolved | 378 |
29,638 | Will 6 or 7 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024? | Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.
The announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day). | no | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | resolved | 379 |
29,637 | Will 4 or 5 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024? | Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.
The announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day). | no | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | resolved | 380 |
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