Daily Papers

We introduce BridgeData V2, a large and diverse dataset of robotic manipulation behaviors designed to facilitate research on scalable robot learning. BridgeData V2 contains 60,096 trajectories collected across 24 environments on a publicly available low-cost robot. BridgeData V2 provides extensive task and environment variability, leading to skills that can generalize across environments, domains, and institutions, making the dataset a useful resource for a broad range of researchers. Additionally, the dataset is compatible with a wide variety of open-vocabulary, multi-task learning methods conditioned on goal images or natural language instructions. In our experiments, we train 6 state-of-the-art imitation learning and offline reinforcement learning methods on our dataset, and find that they succeed on a suite of tasks requiring varying amounts of generalization. We also demonstrate that the performance of these methods improves with more data and higher capacity models, and that training on a greater variety of skills leads to improved generalization. By publicly sharing BridgeData V2 and our pre-trained models, we aim to accelerate research in scalable robot learning methods. Project page at https://rail-berkeley.github.io/bridgedata

A long-standing goal in AI is to build agents that can solve a variety of tasks across different environments, including previously unseen ones. Two dominant approaches tackle this challenge: (i) reinforcement learning (RL), which learns policies through trial and error, and (ii) optimal control, which plans actions using a learned or known dynamics model. However, their relative strengths and weaknesses remain underexplored in the setting where agents must learn from offline trajectories without reward annotations. In this work, we systematically analyze the performance of different RL and control-based methods under datasets of varying quality. On the RL side, we consider goal-conditioned and zero-shot approaches. On the control side, we train a latent dynamics model using the Joint Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) and use it for planning. We study how dataset properties-such as data diversity, trajectory quality, and environment variability-affect the performance of these approaches. Our results show that model-free RL excels when abundant, high-quality data is available, while model-based planning excels in generalization to novel environment layouts, trajectory stitching, and data-efficiency. Notably, planning with a latent dynamics model emerges as a promising approach for zero-shot generalization from suboptimal data.

Generative AI technologies are growing in power, utility, and use. As generative technologies are being incorporated into mainstream applications, there is a need for guidance on how to design those applications to foster productive and safe use. Based on recent research on human-AI co-creation within the HCI and AI communities, we present a set of seven principles for the design of generative AI applications. These principles are grounded in an environment of generative variability. Six principles are focused on designing for characteristics of generative AI: multiple outcomes & imperfection; exploration & control; and mental models & explanations. In addition, we urge designers to design against potential harms that may be caused by a generative model's hazardous output, misuse, or potential for human displacement. We anticipate these principles to usefully inform design decisions made in the creation of novel human-AI applications, and we invite the community to apply, revise, and extend these principles to their own work.

This work aims to advance sound event detection (SED) research by presenting a new large language model (LLM)-powered dataset namely wild domestic environment sound event detection (WildDESED). It is crafted as an extension to the original DESED dataset to reflect diverse acoustic variability and complex noises in home settings. We leveraged LLMs to generate eight different domestic scenarios based on target sound categories of the DESED dataset. Then we enriched the scenarios with a carefully tailored mixture of noises selected from AudioSet and ensured no overlap with target sound. We consider widely popular convolutional neural recurrent network to study WildDESED dataset, which depicts its challenging nature. We then apply curriculum learning by gradually increasing noise complexity to enhance the model's generalization capabilities across various noise levels. Our results with this approach show improvements within the noisy environment, validating the effectiveness on the WildDESED dataset promoting noise-robust SED advancements.

For robots to operate in general environments like households, they must be able to perform non-prehensile manipulation actions such as toppling and rolling to manipulate ungraspable objects. However, prior works on non-prehensile manipulation cannot yet generalize across environments with diverse geometries. The main challenge lies in adapting to varying environmental constraints: within a cabinet, the robot must avoid walls and ceilings; to lift objects to the top of a step, the robot must account for the step's pose and extent. While deep reinforcement learning (RL) has demonstrated impressive success in non-prehensile manipulation, accounting for such variability presents a challenge for the generalist policy, as it must learn diverse strategies for each new combination of constraints. To address this, we propose a modular and reconfigurable architecture that adaptively reconfigures network modules based on task requirements. To capture the geometric variability in environments, we extend the contact-based object representation (CORN) to environment geometries, and propose a procedural algorithm for generating diverse environments to train our agent. Taken together, the resulting policy can zero-shot transfer to novel real-world environments and objects despite training entirely within a simulator. We additionally release a simulation-based benchmark featuring nine digital twins of real-world scenes with 353 objects to facilitate non-prehensile manipulation research in realistic domains.

Ecological systems are dynamic and policies to manage them need to respond to that variation. However, policy adjustments will sometimes be costly, which means that fine-tuning a policy to track variability in the environment very tightly will only sometimes be worthwhile. We use a classic fisheries management question -- how to manage a stochastically varying population using annually varying quotas in order to maximize profit -- to examine how costs of policy adjustment change optimal management recommendations. Costs of policy adjustment (here changes in fishing quotas through time) could take different forms. For example, these costs may respond to the size of the change being implemented, or there could be a fixed cost any time a quota change is made. We show how different forms of policy costs have contrasting implications for optimal policies. Though it is frequently assumed that costs to adjusting policies will dampen variation in the policy, we show that certain cost structures can actually increase variation through time. We further show that failing to account for adjustment costs has a consistently worse economic impact than would assuming these costs are present when they are not.

As energy systems transform to rely on renewable energy and electrification, they encounter stronger year-to-year variability in energy supply and demand. However, most infrastructure planning is based on a single weather year, resulting in a lack of robustness. In this paper, we optimize energy infrastructure for a European energy system designed for net-zero CO_2 emissions in 62 different weather years. Subsequently, we fix the capacity layouts and simulate their operation in every weather year, to evaluate resource adequacy and CO_2 emissions abatement. We show that interannual weather variability causes variation of pm10\% in total system cost. The most expensive capacity layout obtains the lowest net CO_2 emissions but not the highest resource adequacy. Instead, capacity layouts designed with years including compound weather events result in a more robust and cost-effective design. Deploying CO_2-emitting backup generation is a cost-effective robustness measure, which only increase CO_2 emissions marginally as the average CO_2 emissions remain less than 1\% of 1990 levels. Our findings highlight how extreme weather years drive investments in robustness measures, making them compatible with all weather conditions within six decades of historical weather data.

Recent JWST observations with NIRCam and MIRI of the ultra-short-period super-Earth 55 Cancri e indicate a possible volatile atmosphere surrounding the planet. Previous analysis of the NIRCam spectra suggested potential absorption features from CO2 or CO and significant sub-weekly variability. The MIRI low-resolution spectrum does not contain substantial features but was found to be consistent with effective heat redistribution models. In this work, we computed a grid of over 25000 self-consistent 1D forward models incorporating H-N-O-C-S-P-Si-Ti equilibrium chemistry and assessed plausible atmospheric compositions based on the current JWST data. Despite exhaustive analysis, the composition and properties of the atmosphere remain elusive. While our results statistically favour a global, hydrogen-free, nitrogen-dominated atmosphere enriched in PO and CO2, various alternative compositions, including H2O-,CO-, PH3-, or Si-bearing remain viable explanations. Unconstrained heat redistribution efficiency and absolute NIRCam flux are among the largest sources of uncertainty in our analysis. We also find that the heat redistribution factor and surface pressure are highly degenerate with atmospheric composition, and that these parameters cannot be independently constrained using current JWST observations. Furthermore, we show that the observed variability may arise from dynamic interactions between the atmosphere and an underlying magma ocean, driving rapid shifts in atmospheric chemistry and thermal emission. Our results highlight the importance of using self-consistent forward models when analysing novel JWST spectra with limited signal-to-noise ratios -- such as those of 55 Cancri e -- as it allows for a more comprehensive evaluation of potential atmospheric scenarios while also being less sensitive to subtle spectral differences than retrievals...

X-ray observations are essential for understanding the multimessenger emission mechanisms of active galactic nuclei (AGN). Blazars, a subset of AGN whose X-ray emission predominantly originates from relativistic jets, have been proposed as promising high-energy neutrino sources. In this work, we study the candidate neutrino-emitting blazar 5BZB J0630-24064, which has been observed over multiple epochs with the XMM-Newton, NuSTAR, Neil Gehrels Swift-XRT, and eROSITA observatories. Analysis of the X-ray spectra in the 2.0-10.0 keV band shows significant variability, with high flux states adhering to a power-law model indicative of jet emission. However, during low-flux states, the spectrum reveals an additional component at hard-X-rays, indicating a transition from jet-dominated to multi-component X-ray emission, possibly associated with hadronic processes. To investigate this spectral evolution, we tested various models and found it to be consistent with corona emission or photoionised absorption processes typically observed in obscured AGN. The identification of the X-ray spectral variability in 5BZB J0630-24064, combined with its potential for neutrino production, opens new perspectives in multimessenger astrophysics of blazars highlighting the synergies between the mechanisms of the jet and the nuclear environment.

POST-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a chronic and debilitating mental condition that is developed in response to catastrophic life events, such as military combat, sexual assault, and natural disasters. PTSD is characterized by flashbacks of past traumatic events, intrusive thoughts, nightmares, hypervigilance, and sleep disturbance, all of which affect a person's life and lead to considerable social, occupational, and interpersonal dysfunction. The diagnosis of PTSD is done by medical professionals using self-assessment questionnaire of PTSD symptoms as defined in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM). In this paper, and for the first time, we collected, annotated, and prepared for public distribution a new video database for automatic PTSD diagnosis, called PTSD in the wild dataset. The database exhibits "natural" and big variability in acquisition conditions with different pose, facial expression, lighting, focus, resolution, age, gender, race, occlusions and background. In addition to describing the details of the dataset collection, we provide a benchmark for evaluating computer vision and machine learning based approaches on PTSD in the wild dataset. In addition, we propose and we evaluate a deep learning based approach for PTSD detection in respect to the given benchmark. The proposed approach shows very promising results. Interested researcher can download a copy of PTSD-in-the wild dataset from: http://www.lissi.fr/PTSD-Dataset/

Multi-Agent Path Finding (MAPF), which focuses on finding collision-free paths for multiple robots, is crucial for applications ranging from aerial swarms to warehouse automation. Solving MAPF is NP-hard so learning-based approaches for MAPF have gained attention, particularly those leveraging deep neural networks. Nonetheless, despite the community's continued efforts, all learning-based MAPF planners still rely on decentralized planning due to variability in the number of agents and map sizes. We have developed the first centralized learning-based policy for MAPF problem called RAILGUN. RAILGUN is not an agent-based policy but a map-based policy. By leveraging a CNN-based architecture, RAILGUN can generalize across different maps and handle any number of agents. We collect trajectories from rule-based methods to train our model in a supervised way. In experiments, RAILGUN outperforms most baseline methods and demonstrates great zero-shot generalization capabilities on various tasks, maps and agent numbers that were not seen in the training dataset.

One of the key challenges in deploying RL to real-world applications is to adapt to variations of unknown environment contexts, such as changing terrains in robotic tasks and fluctuated bandwidth in congestion control. Existing works on adaptation to unknown environment contexts either assume the contexts are the same for the whole episode or assume the context variables are Markovian. However, in many real-world applications, the environment context usually stays stable for a stochastic period and then changes in an abrupt and unpredictable manner within an episode, resulting in a segment structure, which existing works fail to address. To leverage the segment structure of piecewise stable context in real-world applications, in this paper, we propose a \textbf{Segmented Context Belief Augmented Deep~(SeCBAD)} RL method. Our method can jointly infer the belief distribution over latent context with the posterior over segment length and perform more accurate belief context inference with observed data within the current context segment. The inferred belief context can be leveraged to augment the state, leading to a policy that can adapt to abrupt variations in context. We demonstrate empirically that SeCBAD can infer context segment length accurately and outperform existing methods on a toy grid world environment and Mujuco tasks with piecewise-stable context.

Full-complexity Earth system models (ESMs) are computationally very expensive, limiting their use in exploring the climate outcomes of multiple emission pathways. More efficient emulators that approximate ESMs can directly map emissions onto climate outcomes, and benchmarks are being used to evaluate their accuracy on standardized tasks and datasets. We investigate a popular benchmark in data-driven climate emulation, ClimateBench, on which deep learning-based emulators are currently achieving the best performance. We implement a linear regression-based emulator, akin to pattern scaling, and find that it outperforms the incumbent 100M-parameter deep learning foundation model, ClimaX, on 3 out of 4 regionally-resolved surface-level climate variables. While emulating surface temperature is expected to be predominantly linear, this result is surprising for emulating precipitation. We identify that this outcome is a result of high levels of internal variability in the benchmark targets. To address internal variability, we update the benchmark targets with ensemble averages from the MPI-ESM1.2-LR model that contain 50 instead of 3 climate simulations per emission pathway. Using the new targets, we show that linear pattern scaling continues to be more accurate on temperature, but can be outperformed by a deep learning-based model for emulating precipitation. We publish our code, data, and an interactive tutorial at github.com/blutjens/climate-emulator.

Existing machine learning models of weather variability are not formulated to enable assessment of their response to varying external boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. Here we present ACE2 (Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2) and its application to reproducing atmospheric variability over the past 80 years on timescales from days to decades. ACE2 is a 450M-parameter autoregressive machine learning emulator, operating with 6-hour temporal resolution, 1{\deg} horizontal resolution and eight vertical layers. It exactly conserves global dry air mass and moisture and can be stepped forward stably for arbitrarily many steps with a throughput of about 1500 simulated years per wall clock day. ACE2 generates emergent phenomena such as tropical cyclones, the Madden Julian Oscillation, and sudden stratospheric warmings. Furthermore, it accurately reproduces the atmospheric response to El Ni\~no variability and global trends of temperature over the past 80 years. However, its sensitivities to separately changing sea surface temperature and carbon dioxide are not entirely realistic.

Solar irradiance and its variations in the ultraviolet (UV) control the photochemistry in Earth's atmosphere and influence Earth's climate. The variability of Mg II h and k core-to-wing ratio, also known as the Mg II index, is highly correlated with the solar UV irradiance variability. Because of this, Mg II index is routinely used as a proxy for solar UV irradiance variability, which can help to get insights into the influence of solar UV irradiance variability on Earth's climate. Measurements of the Mg II index, however, have only been carried out since 1978 and do not cover the climate relevant timescales longer than a few decades. Here we present a model to calculate the Mg II index and its variability based on the well-established SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) model. We demonstrate that our model calculations yield an excellent agreement with the observed Mg II index variations, both on the solar activity cycle and on the solar rotation timescales. Using this model, we synthesize Mg II index timeseries on climate relevant timescales of decades and longer. Here we present the timeseries of the Mg II index spanning nearly three centuries.

Tool learning enables large language models (LLMs) to interact with external tools and APIs, greatly expanding the application scope of LLMs. However, due to the dynamic nature of external environments, these tools and APIs may become outdated over time, preventing LLMs from correctly invoking tools. Existing research primarily focuses on static environments and overlooks this issue, limiting the adaptability of LLMs in real-world applications. In this paper, we propose ToolEVO, a novel framework designed to enhance the adaptive and reflective capabilities of LLMs against tool variability. By leveraging Monte Carlo Tree Search, ToolEVO facilitates active exploration and interaction of LLMs within dynamic environments, allowing for autonomous self-reflection and self-updating of tool usage based on environmental feedback. Additionally, we introduce ToolQA-D, a benchmark specifically designed to evaluate the impact of tool variability. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and stability of our approach, highlighting the importance of adaptability to tool variability for effective tool learning.

With the rapid development of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), they are increasingly deployed as autonomous computer-use agents capable of accomplishing complex computer tasks. However, a pressing issue arises: Can the safety risk principles designed and aligned for general MLLMs in dialogue scenarios be effectively transferred to real-world computer-use scenarios? Existing research on evaluating the safety risks of MLLM-based computer-use agents suffers from several limitations: it either lacks realistic interactive environments, or narrowly focuses on one or a few specific risk types. These limitations ignore the complexity, variability, and diversity of real-world environments, thereby restricting comprehensive risk evaluation for computer-use agents. To this end, we introduce RiOSWorld, a benchmark designed to evaluate the potential risks of MLLM-based agents during real-world computer manipulations. Our benchmark includes 492 risky tasks spanning various computer applications, involving web, social media, multimedia, os, email, and office software. We categorize these risks into two major classes based on their risk source: (i) User-originated risks and (ii) Environmental risks. For the evaluation, we evaluate safety risks from two perspectives: (i) Risk goal intention and (ii) Risk goal completion. Extensive experiments with multimodal agents on RiOSWorld demonstrate that current computer-use agents confront significant safety risks in real-world scenarios. Our findings highlight the necessity and urgency of safety alignment for computer-use agents in real-world computer manipulation, providing valuable insights for developing trustworthy computer-use agents. Our benchmark is publicly available at https://yjyddq.github.io/RiOSWorld.github.io/.

Typical neural network trainings have substantial variance in test-set performance between repeated runs, impeding hyperparameter comparison and training reproducibility. We present the following results towards understanding this variation. (1) Despite having significant variance on their test-sets, we demonstrate that standard CIFAR-10 and ImageNet trainings have very little variance in their performance on the test-distributions from which those test-sets are sampled, suggesting that variance is less of a practical issue than previously thought. (2) We present a simplifying statistical assumption which closely approximates the structure of the test-set accuracy distribution. (3) We argue that test-set variance is inevitable in the following two senses. First, we show that variance is largely caused by high sensitivity of the training process to initial conditions, rather than by specific sources of randomness like the data order and augmentations. Second, we prove that variance is unavoidable given the observation that ensembles of trained networks are well-calibrated. (4) We conduct preliminary studies of distribution-shift, fine-tuning, data augmentation and learning rate through the lens of variance between runs.

Recent advancements in 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) and Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) have achieved impressive results in real-time 3D reconstruction and novel view synthesis. However, these methods struggle in large-scale, unconstrained environments where sparse and uneven input coverage, transient occlusions, appearance variability, and inconsistent camera settings lead to degraded quality. We propose GS-Diff, a novel 3DGS framework guided by a multi-view diffusion model to address these limitations. By generating pseudo-observations conditioned on multi-view inputs, our method transforms under-constrained 3D reconstruction problems into well-posed ones, enabling robust optimization even with sparse data. GS-Diff further integrates several enhancements, including appearance embedding, monocular depth priors, dynamic object modeling, anisotropy regularization, and advanced rasterization techniques, to tackle geometric and photometric challenges in real-world settings. Experiments on four benchmarks demonstrate that GS-Diff consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines by significant margins.

Interactive multimodal agents must convert raw visual observations into coherent sequences of language-conditioned actions -- a capability that current vision-language models (VLMs) still lack. Earlier reinforcement-learning (RL) efforts could, in principle, endow VLMs with such skills, but they have seldom tested whether the learned behaviours generalize beyond their training simulators, and they depend either on brittle hyperparameter tuning or on dense-reward environments with low state variability. We introduce Vision-Language Decoupled Actor-Critic (VL-DAC), a lightweight, hyperparameter-free RL algorithm. VL-DAC applies PPO updates to action tokens while learning value only at the environment-step level: an arrangement, to our knowledge, not previously explored for large VLMs or LLMs. This simple decoupling removes unstable weighting terms and yields faster, more reliable convergence. Training a single VLM with VL-DAC in one inexpensive simulator at a time (MiniWorld, Gym-Cards, ALFWorld, or WebShop) already produces policies that generalize widely: +50\% relative on BALROG (game-centric agentic control), +5\% relative on the hardest part of VSI-Bench (spatial planning), and +2\% on VisualWebBench (web navigation), all without degrading general image understanding accuracy. These results provide the first evidence that a simple RL algorithm can train VLMs entirely in cheap synthetic worlds while delivering measurable gains on real-image agentic, spatial-reasoning, and web-navigation benchmarks.

While reinforcement learning algorithms can learn effective policies for complex tasks, these policies are often brittle to even minor task variations, especially when variations are not explicitly provided during training. One natural approach to this problem is to train agents with manually specified variation in the training task or environment. However, this may be infeasible in practical situations, either because making perturbations is not possible, or because it is unclear how to choose suitable perturbation strategies without sacrificing performance. The key insight of this work is that learning diverse behaviors for accomplishing a task can directly lead to behavior that generalizes to varying environments, without needing to perform explicit perturbations during training. By identifying multiple solutions for the task in a single environment during training, our approach can generalize to new situations by abandoning solutions that are no longer effective and adopting those that are. We theoretically characterize a robustness set of environments that arises from our algorithm and empirically find that our diversity-driven approach can extrapolate to various changes in the environment and task.

California is a global leader in agricultural production, contributing 12.5% of the United States total output and ranking as the fifth-largest food and cotton supplier in the world. Despite the availability of extensive historical yield data from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, accurate and timely crop yield forecasting remains a challenge due to the complex interplay of environmental, climatic, and soil-related factors. In this study, we introduce a comprehensive crop yield benchmark dataset covering over 70 crops across all California counties from 2008 to 2022. The benchmark integrates diverse data sources, including Landsat satellite imagery, daily climate records, monthly evapotranspiration, and high-resolution soil properties. To effectively learn from these heterogeneous inputs, we develop a multi-modal deep learning model tailored for county-level, crop-specific yield forecasting. The model employs stratified feature extraction and a timeseries encoder to capture spatial and temporal dynamics during the growing season. Static inputs such as soil characteristics and crop identity inform long-term variability. Our approach achieves an overall R2 score of 0.76 across all crops of unseen test dataset, highlighting strong predictive performance across California diverse agricultural regions. This benchmark and modeling framework offer a valuable foundation for advancing agricultural forecasting, climate adaptation, and precision farming. The full dataset and codebase are publicly available at our GitHub repository.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have enabled researchers to focus on practical repository-level tasks in software engineering domain. In this work, we consider a cornerstone task for automating work with software repositories-environment setup, i.e., a task of configuring a repository-specific development environment on a system. Existing studies on environment setup introduce innovative agentic strategies, but their evaluation is often based on small datasets that may not capture the full range of configuration challenges encountered in practice. To address this gap, we introduce a comprehensive environment setup benchmark EnvBench. It encompasses 329 Python and 665 JVM-based (Java, Kotlin) repositories, with a focus on repositories that present genuine configuration challenges, excluding projects that can be fully configured by simple deterministic scripts. To enable further benchmark extension and usage for model tuning, we implement two automatic metrics: a static analysis check for missing imports in Python and a compilation check for JVM languages. We demonstrate the applicability of our benchmark by evaluating three environment setup approaches, including a simple zero-shot baseline and two agentic workflows, that we test with two powerful LLM backbones, GPT-4o and GPT-4o-mini. The best approach manages to successfully configure 6.69% repositories for Python and 29.47% repositories for JVM, suggesting that EnvBench remains challenging for current approaches. Our benchmark suite is publicly available at https://github.com/JetBrains-Research/EnvBench. The dataset and experiment trajectories are available at https://jb.gg/envbench.

Air pollution remains a leading global health risk, exacerbated by rapid industrialization and urbanization, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality rates. In this paper, we introduce AirCast, a novel multi-variable air pollution forecasting model, by combining weather and air quality variables. AirCast employs a multi-task head architecture that simultaneously forecasts atmospheric conditions and pollutant concentrations, improving its understanding of how weather patterns affect air quality. Predicting extreme pollution events is challenging due to their rare occurrence in historic data, resulting in a heavy-tailed distribution of pollution levels. To address this, we propose a novel Frequency-weighted Mean Absolute Error (fMAE) loss, adapted from the class-balanced loss for regression tasks. Informed from domain knowledge, we investigate the selection of key variables known to influence pollution levels. Additionally, we align existing weather and chemical datasets across spatial and temporal dimensions. AirCast's integrated approach, combining multi-task learning, frequency weighted loss and domain informed variable selection, enables more accurate pollution forecasts. Our source code and models are made public here (https://github.com/vishalned/AirCast.git)

Ocean scientists have been collecting visual data to study marine organisms for decades. These images and videos are extremely valuable both for basic science and environmental monitoring tasks. There are tools for automatically processing these data, but none that are capable of handling the extreme variability in sample populations, image quality, and habitat characteristics that are common in visual sampling of the ocean. Such distribution shifts can occur over very short physical distances and in narrow time windows. Creating models that are able to recognize when an image or video sequence contains a new organism, an unusual collection of animals, or is otherwise out-of-sample is critical to fully leverage visual data in the ocean. The FathomNet2023 competition dataset presents a realistic scenario where the set of animals in the target data differs from the training data. The challenge is both to identify the organisms in a target image and assess whether it is out-of-sample.

We derive an expression for the variation between parallel trajectories in phenotypic evolution, extending the well known result that predicts the mean evolutionary path in adaptive dynamics or quantitative genetics. We show how this expression gives rise to the notion of fluctuation domains - parts of the fitness landscape where the rate of evolution is very predictable (due to fluctuation dissipation) and parts where it is highly variable (due to fluctuation enhancement). These fluctuation domains are determined by the curvature of the fitness landscape. Regions of the fitness landscape with positive curvature, such as adaptive valleys or branching points, experience enhancement. Regions with negative curvature, such as adaptive peaks, experience dissipation. We explore these dynamics in the ecological scenarios of implicit and explicit competition for a limiting resource.

In continual learning (CL), an AI agent (e.g., autonomous vehicles or robotics) learns from non-stationary data streams under dynamic environments. For the practical deployment of such applications, it is important to guarantee robustness to unseen environments while maintaining past experiences. In this paper, a novel CL framework is proposed to achieve robust generalization to dynamic environments while retaining past knowledge. The considered CL agent uses a capacity-limited memory to save previously observed environmental information to mitigate forgetting issues. Then, data points are sampled from the memory to estimate the distribution of risks over environmental change so as to obtain predictors that are robust with unseen changes. The generalization and memorization performance of the proposed framework are theoretically analyzed. This analysis showcases the tradeoff between memorization and generalization with the memory size. Experiments show that the proposed algorithm outperforms memory-based CL baselines across all environments while significantly improving the generalization performance on unseen target environments.

The concentration of radon in the air has been measured in the 700 m-deep Yangyang underground laboratory between October 2004 and May 2022. The average concentrations in two experimental areas, called A6 and A5, were measured to be 53.4pm0.2 Bq/m3 and 33.5pm0.1 Bq/m3, respectively. The lower value in the A5 area reflects the presence of better temperature control and ventilation. The radon concentrations sampled within the two A5 experimental rooms' air are found to be correlated to the local surface temperature outside of the rooms, with correlation coefficients r = 0.22 and r = 0.70. Therefore, the radon concentrations display a seasonal variation, because the local temperature driven by the overground season influences air ventilation in the experimental areas. A fit on the annual residual concentrations finds that the amplitude occurs each year on August, 31pm6 days.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

Precise crop yield prediction is essential for improving agricultural practices and ensuring crop resilience in varying climates. Integrating weather data across the growing season, especially for different crop varieties, is crucial for understanding their adaptability in the face of climate change. In the MLCAS2021 Crop Yield Prediction Challenge, we utilized a dataset comprising 93,028 training records to forecast yields for 10,337 test records, covering 159 locations across 28 U.S. states and Canadian provinces over 13 years (2003-2015). This dataset included details on 5,838 distinct genotypes and daily weather data for a 214-day growing season, enabling comprehensive analysis. As one of the winning teams, we developed two novel convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures: the CNN-DNN model, combining CNN and fully-connected networks, and the CNN-LSTM-DNN model, with an added LSTM layer for weather variables. Leveraging the Generalized Ensemble Method (GEM), we determined optimal model weights, resulting in superior performance compared to baseline models. The GEM model achieved lower RMSE (5.55% to 39.88%), reduced MAE (5.34% to 43.76%), and higher correlation coefficients (1.1% to 10.79%) when evaluated on test data. We applied the CNN-DNN model to identify top-performing genotypes for various locations and weather conditions, aiding genotype selection based on weather variables. Our data-driven approach is valuable for scenarios with limited testing years. Additionally, a feature importance analysis using RMSE change highlighted the significance of location, MG, year, and genotype, along with the importance of weather variables MDNI and AP.

Climate decision making is constrained by the complexity and inaccessibility of key information within lengthy, technical, and multi-lingual documents. Generative AI technologies offer a promising route for improving the accessibility of information contained within these documents, but suffer from limitations. These include (1) a tendency to hallucinate or mis-represent information, (2) difficulty in steering or guaranteeing properties of generated output, and (3) reduced performance in specific technical domains. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel evaluation framework with domain-specific dimensions tailored for climate-related documents. We then apply this framework to evaluate Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) approaches and assess retrieval- and generation-quality within a prototype tool that answers questions about individual climate law and policy documents. In addition, we publish a human-annotated dataset and scalable automated evaluation tools, with the aim of facilitating broader adoption and robust assessment of these systems in the climate domain. Our findings highlight the key components of responsible deployment of RAG to enhance decision-making, while also providing insights into user experience (UX) considerations for safely deploying such systems to build trust with users in high-risk domains.

We consider a biological population whose environment varies periodically in time, exhibiting two very different "seasons" : one is favorable and the other one is unfavorable. For monotone differential models with concave nonlinearities, we address the following question: the system's period being fixed, under what conditions does there exist a critical duration for the unfavorable season? By "critical duration" we mean that above some threshold, the population cannot sustain and extincts, while below this threshold, the system converges to a unique periodic and positive solution. We term this a "sharp seasonal threshold property" (SSTP, for short). Building upon a previous result, we obtain sufficient conditions for SSTP in any dimension and apply our criterion to a two-dimensional model featuring juvenile and adult populations of insects.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate distributions, or changes in the relationship between label and features. When a model does fail during deployment, attributing performance change to these factors is critical for the model developer to identify the root cause and take mitigating actions. In this work, we introduce the problem of attributing performance differences between environments to distribution shifts in the underlying data generating mechanisms. We formulate the problem as a cooperative game where the players are distributions. We define the value of a set of distributions to be the change in model performance when only this set of distributions has changed between environments, and derive an importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions. The contribution of each distribution to the total performance change is then quantified as its Shapley value. We demonstrate the correctness and utility of our method on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world case studies, showing its effectiveness in attributing performance changes to a wide range of distribution shifts.

Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of many extreme weather events, including heatwaves, which results in increased thermal discomfort and mortality rates. While global mitigation action is undoubtedly necessary, so is climate adaptation, e.g., through climate-sensitive urban planning. Among the most promising strategies is harnessing the benefits of urban trees in shading and cooling pedestrian-level environments. Our work investigates the challenge of optimal placement of such trees. Physical simulations can estimate the radiative and thermal impact of trees on human thermal comfort but induce high computational costs. This rules out optimization of tree placements over large areas and considering effects over longer time scales. Hence, we employ neural networks to simulate the point-wise mean radiant temperatures--a driving factor of outdoor human thermal comfort--across various time scales, spanning from daily variations to extended time scales of heatwave events and even decades. To optimize tree placements, we harness the innate local effect of trees within the iterated local search framework with tailored adaptations. We show the efficacy of our approach across a wide spectrum of study areas and time scales. We believe that our approach is a step towards empowering decision-makers, urban designers and planners to proactively and effectively assess the potential of urban trees to mitigate heat stress.

Combined electric power system and High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) models are being developed to determine the effect of a HEMP on the US power grid. The work relies primarily on deterministic methods; however, it is computationally untenable to evaluate the E1 HEMP response of large numbers of grid components distributed across a large interconnection. Further, the deterministic assessment of these components' failures are largely unachievable. E1 HEMP laboratory testing of the components is accomplished, but is expensive, leaving few data points to construct failure models of grid components exposed to E1 HEMP. The use of Bayesian priors, developed using the subject matter expertise, combined with the minimal test data in a Bayesian inference process, provides the basis for the development of more robust and cost-effective statistical component failure models. These can be used with minimal computational burden in a simulation environment such as sampling of Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs).

Robustness to natural distribution shifts has seen remarkable progress thanks to recent pre-training strategies combined with better fine-tuning methods. However, such fine-tuning assumes access to large amounts of labelled data, and the extent to which the observations hold when the amount of training data is not as high remains unknown. We address this gap by performing the first in-depth study of robustness to various natural distribution shifts in different low-shot regimes: spanning datasets, architectures, pre-trained initializations, and state-of-the-art robustness interventions. Most importantly, we find that there is no single model of choice that is often more robust than others, and existing interventions can fail to improve robustness on some datasets even if they do so in the full-shot regime. We hope that our work will motivate the community to focus on this problem of practical importance.