ellisbrown/BDML25SP_hw1_processed_data · Datasets at Hugging Face

text stringlengths 0 5.58k
37Foreword
and PrefaceTechnical Summary

TS
39Technical Summary
Editorial Team:
Hans-Otto Pörtner (Germany), Debra C. Roberts (South Africa), Valerie Masson-Delmotte
(France), Panmao Zhai (China), Elvira Poloczanska (United Kingdom/Australia), Katja Mintenbeck
(Germany), Melinda Tignor (USA), Andrés Alegría (Honduras), Maike Nicolai (Germany),
Andrew Okem (Nigeria), Jan Petzold (Germany), Bard Rama (Kosovo), Nora M. Weyer (Germany)
Authors:
Amro Abd-Elgawad (Egypt), Nerilie Abram (Australia), Carolina Adler (Switzerland/Australia), Andrés Alegría (Honduras), Javier Arístegui (Spain), Nathaniel L. Bindoff (Australia),
Laurens Bouwer (Netherlands), Bolívar Cáceres (Ecuador), Rongshuo Cai (China), Sandra Cassotta
(Denmark), Lijing Cheng (China), So-Min Cheong (Republic of Korea), William W. L. Cheung
(Canada), Maria Paz Chidichimo (Argentina), Miguel Cifuentes-Jara (Costa Rica), Matthew Collins
(United Kingdom), Susan Crate (USA), Rob Deconto (USA), Chris Derksen (Canada),
Alexey Ekaykin (Russian Federation), Hiroyuki Enomoto (Japan), Thomas Frölicher (Switzerland), Matthias Garschagen (Germany), Jean-Pierre Gattuso (France), Tuhin Ghosh (India), Bruce Glavovic (New Zealand), Nicolas Gruber (Switzerland), Stephan Gruber (Canada/Germany),
Valeria A. Guinder (Argentina), Robert Hallberg (USA), Sherilee Harper (Canada), John Hay
(Cook Islands), Nathalie Hilmi (France), Jochen Hinkel (Germany), Yukiko Hirabayashi (Japan),
Regine Hock (USA), Elisabeth Holland (Fiji), Anne Hollowed (USA), Federico Isla (Argentina),
Miriam Jackson (Norway), Hélène Jacot Des Combes (Fiji), Nianzhi Jiao (China), Andreas Kääb
(Norway), James G. Kairo (Kenya), Shichang Kang (China), Md Saiful Karim (Australia),
Gary Koﬁnas (USA), Roxy Mathew Koll (India), Raphael Martin Kudela (USA), Stanislav Kutuzov
(Russian Federation), Lisa Levin (USA), Iñigo Losada (Spain), Andrew Mackintosh (New Zealand),
Alexandre K. Magnan (France), Ben Marzeion (Germany), Valerie Masson-Delmotte (France),
Robin Matthews (United Kingdom), Kathleen McInnes (Australia), Jess Melbourne-Thomas
(Australia), Michael Meredith (United Kingdom), Benoit Meyssignac (France), Alexander Milner (United Kingdom), Katja Mintenbeck (Germany), Ulf Molau (Sweden), Samuel Morin (France), Mônica M.C. Muelbert (Brazil), Maike Nicolai (Germany), Sean O’Donoghue (South Africa),
Andrew Okem (Nigeria), Michael Oppenheimer (USA), Ben Orlove (USA), Geir Ottersen
(Norway), Jan Petzold (Germany), Anna Pirani (Italy), Hans-Otto Pörtner (Germany),
Elvira Poloczanska (United Kingdom/Australia), Anjal Prakash (India), Hamish Pritchard
(United Kingdom), Sara R. Purca Cuicapusa (Peru), Golam Rasul (Nepal), Beate Ratter (Germany),

40Technical Summary
TS
This Technical Summary should be cited as:
IPCC, 2019: Technical Summary [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V . Masson-Delmotte, P . Zhai, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck,
M. Tignor, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. In: IPCC Special Report on the
Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.- O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V . Masson-Delmotte, P . Zhai, M. Tignor,
E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY , USA, pp. 39–69. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.002Jake Rice (Canada), Baruch Rinkevich (Israel), Evelia Rivera-Arriaga (Mexico), Debra C. Roberts
(South Africa), Karina von Schuckmann (France), Ted Schuur (USA), Zita Sebesvari (Hungary), Martin Sommerkorn (Norway/Germany), Konrad Steffen (Switzerland), Heidi Steltzer (USA), Toshio Suga (Japan), Raden Dwi Susanto (Indonesia), Michael Sutherland (Trinidad and Tobago), Didier Swingedouw (France), Alessandro Tagliabue (United Kingdom), Lourdes Tibig (Philippines), Roderik van de Wal (Netherlands), Phillip Williamson (United Kingdom), Rong Yu (China), Panmao Zhai (China)
Review Editors:
Amjad Abdulla (Maldives), Ayako Abe-Ouchi (Japan), Oleg Anisimov (Russian Federation), Manuel Barange (South Africa), Gregory Flato (Canada), Kapil Gupta (India), Marcelino Hernández González (Cuba), Georg Kaser (Austria), Aditi Mukherji (Nepal), Joy Pereira (Malaysia), Monika Rhein (Germany), David Schoeman (Australia), Brad Seibel (USA), Carol Turley (United Kingdom), Cunde Xiao (China)
Chapter Scientists:
Maya Buchanan (USA), Axel Durand (Australia), Bethany Ellis (Australia), Shengping He (Norway/China), Jules Kajtar (United Kingdom), Pierre-Marie Lefeuvre (Norway/France), Santosh Nepal (Nepal), Avash Pandey (Nepal), Victoria Peck (United Kingdom)
Additional Graphics Support:
Martin Künstig (Germany), Stefanie Langsdorf (Germany)

41Technical Summary
TSTable of contents
TS.0 Introduction .............................................................................................. 42
TS.1 Framing and Context of the Report ..................................... 43
TS.2 High Mountain Areas ........................................................................ 47
TS.3 Polar Regions .......................................................................................... 51
TS.4 Sea Level Rise and Implications for
Low-lying Islands, Coasts and Communities ................. 55
TS.5 Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems,
and Dependent Communities .................................................... 58
TS.6 Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risks ....... 67
TS.7 Low-lying Islands and Coasts
(Integrative Cross-Chapter Box) .............................................. 69

42Technical Summary
TSTS.0 Introduction
This Technical Summary of the IPCC Special Report on Ocean and
Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) consists of the Executive
Summaries of all chapters (1–6) of the Special Report, the Executive Summary from the Integrative Cross-Chapter Box on Low-Lying Islands and Coasts, and supporting ﬁgures drawn from the chapters and the Summary for Policymakers. The Technical Summary follows the structure of the Report (Table TS.1).
Section TS.1 (Chapter 1) introduces important key concepts,
summarizes the characteristics and interconnection of ocean and
cryosphere and highlights their importance in the earth system and
for human societies in the light of climate change. TS.2 (Chapter 2) assesses changes in high mountain cryosphere and their impacts on local mountain communities and far beyond. TS.3 (Chapter 3) evaluates the state of knowledge concerning changes and impacts in the Arctic and Antarctic ocean and cryosphere systems, including challenges and opportunities for societies. TS.4 (Chapter 4) focusses
on regional and global changes in sea level, the associated risk to
low-lying islands, coasts and human settlements, and response
options. TS.5 (Chapter 5) assesses changes in the ocean and marine
ecosystems, including risks to ecosystem services and vulnerability
of the dependent communities. TS.6 (Chapter 6) examines extremes and abrupt or irreversible changes in the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate, and identiﬁes sustainable and resilient risk management strategies. All chapters and their Executive Summaries build on ﬁndings since the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and,
whenever applicable, outcomes of the IPCC Special Report on Global
Warming of 1.5ºC (SR15) .
SROCC uses IPCC calibrated language
1 for the communication of
conﬁdence in the assessment process (see Chapter 1 and references
therein). This calibrated language is designed to consistently
evaluate and communicate uncertainties that arise from incomplete
knowledge due to a lack of information, or from disagreement about
what is known or even knowable. The IPCC calibrated language
uses qualitative expressions of conﬁdence based on the robustness
of evidence for a ﬁnding, and (where possible) uses quantitative expressions to describe the likelihood of a ﬁnding (Figure TS.1).
1 Each ﬁnding is grounded in an evaluation of underlying evidence and agreement. The summary terms for evidence are: limited, med ium or robust. For agreement, they are
low, medium or high. In many cases, a synthesis of evidence and agreement supports an assignment of conﬁdence. A level of conﬁd ence is expressed using ﬁve qualiﬁers:
very low, low, medium, high and very high, and typeset in italics, e.g., medium conﬁdence . The following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an
outcome or a result: virtually certain 99–100% probability, very likely 90–100%, likely 66–100%, about as likely as not 33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%,
exceptionally unlikely 0–1%. Additional terms (extremely likely 95–100%, more likely than not >50–100%, more unlikely than like ly 0–<50%, extremely unlikely 0–5%)
may also be used when appropriate. Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, e.g., very likely . This Report also uses the term ‘likely range’ or ‘very likely range’ to indicate
that the assessed likelihood of an outcome lies within the 17–83% or 5–95% probability range. For more details see Chapter 1, S ection 1.9.2 and Figure 1.4. Step 2: Evaluate confidenceStep 1: Evaluate evidence and agreement
Observations Theory Statistics Models Experiments Process
Evidence (type, amount, quality, consistency) Agreement High agreement
Limited evidence
(Emerging) High agreement
Medium evidence High agreement
Robust evidence
(Robust)

37Foreword

and PrefaceTechnical Summary

TS

39Technical Summary

Editorial Team:

Hans-Otto Pörtner (Germany), Debra C. Roberts (South Africa), Valerie Masson-Delmotte

(France), Panmao Zhai (China), Elvira Poloczanska (United Kingdom/Australia), Katja Mintenbeck

(Germany), Melinda Tignor (USA), Andrés Alegría (Honduras), Maike Nicolai (Germany),

Andrew Okem (Nigeria), Jan Petzold (Germany), Bard Rama (Kosovo), Nora M. Weyer (Germany)

Authors:

Amro Abd-Elgawad (Egypt), Nerilie Abram (Australia), Carolina Adler (Switzerland/Australia), Andrés Alegría (Honduras), Javier Arístegui (Spain), Nathaniel L. Bindoff (Australia),

Laurens Bouwer (Netherlands), Bolívar Cáceres (Ecuador), Rongshuo Cai (China), Sandra Cassotta

(Denmark), Lijing Cheng (China), So-Min Cheong (Republic of Korea), William W. L. Cheung

(Canada), Maria Paz Chidichimo (Argentina), Miguel Cifuentes-Jara (Costa Rica), Matthew Collins

(United Kingdom), Susan Crate (USA), Rob Deconto (USA), Chris Derksen (Canada),

Alexey Ekaykin (Russian Federation), Hiroyuki Enomoto (Japan), Thomas Frölicher (Switzerland), Matthias Garschagen (Germany), Jean-Pierre Gattuso (France), Tuhin Ghosh (India), Bruce Glavovic (New Zealand), Nicolas Gruber (Switzerland), Stephan Gruber (Canada/Germany),

Valeria A. Guinder (Argentina), Robert Hallberg (USA), Sherilee Harper (Canada), John Hay

(Cook Islands), Nathalie Hilmi (France), Jochen Hinkel (Germany), Yukiko Hirabayashi (Japan),

Regine Hock (USA), Elisabeth Holland (Fiji), Anne Hollowed (USA), Federico Isla (Argentina),

Miriam Jackson (Norway), Hélène Jacot Des Combes (Fiji), Nianzhi Jiao (China), Andreas Kääb

(Norway), James G. Kairo (Kenya), Shichang Kang (China), Md Saiful Karim (Australia),

Gary Koﬁnas (USA), Roxy Mathew Koll (India), Raphael Martin Kudela (USA), Stanislav Kutuzov

(Russian Federation), Lisa Levin (USA), Iñigo Losada (Spain), Andrew Mackintosh (New Zealand),

Alexandre K. Magnan (France), Ben Marzeion (Germany), Valerie Masson-Delmotte (France),

Robin Matthews (United Kingdom), Kathleen McInnes (Australia), Jess Melbourne-Thomas

(Australia), Michael Meredith (United Kingdom), Benoit Meyssignac (France), Alexander Milner (United Kingdom), Katja Mintenbeck (Germany), Ulf Molau (Sweden), Samuel Morin (France), Mônica M.C. Muelbert (Brazil), Maike Nicolai (Germany), Sean O’Donoghue (South Africa),

Andrew Okem (Nigeria), Michael Oppenheimer (USA), Ben Orlove (USA), Geir Ottersen

(Norway), Jan Petzold (Germany), Anna Pirani (Italy), Hans-Otto Pörtner (Germany),

Elvira Poloczanska (United Kingdom/Australia), Anjal Prakash (India), Hamish Pritchard

(United Kingdom), Sara R. Purca Cuicapusa (Peru), Golam Rasul (Nepal), Beate Ratter (Germany),

40Technical Summary

TS

This Technical Summary should be cited as:

IPCC, 2019: Technical Summary [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V . Masson-Delmotte, P . Zhai, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck,

M. Tignor, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. In: IPCC Special Report on the

Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [H.- O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, V . Masson-Delmotte, P . Zhai, M. Tignor,

E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY , USA, pp. 39–69. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157964.002Jake Rice (Canada), Baruch Rinkevich (Israel), Evelia Rivera-Arriaga (Mexico), Debra C. Roberts

(South Africa), Karina von Schuckmann (France), Ted Schuur (USA), Zita Sebesvari (Hungary), Martin Sommerkorn (Norway/Germany), Konrad Steffen (Switzerland), Heidi Steltzer (USA), Toshio Suga (Japan), Raden Dwi Susanto (Indonesia), Michael Sutherland (Trinidad and Tobago), Didier Swingedouw (France), Alessandro Tagliabue (United Kingdom), Lourdes Tibig (Philippines), Roderik van de Wal (Netherlands), Phillip Williamson (United Kingdom), Rong Yu (China), Panmao Zhai (China)

Review Editors:

Amjad Abdulla (Maldives), Ayako Abe-Ouchi (Japan), Oleg Anisimov (Russian Federation), Manuel Barange (South Africa), Gregory Flato (Canada), Kapil Gupta (India), Marcelino Hernández González (Cuba), Georg Kaser (Austria), Aditi Mukherji (Nepal), Joy Pereira (Malaysia), Monika Rhein (Germany), David Schoeman (Australia), Brad Seibel (USA), Carol Turley (United Kingdom), Cunde Xiao (China)

Chapter Scientists:

Maya Buchanan (USA), Axel Durand (Australia), Bethany Ellis (Australia), Shengping He (Norway/China), Jules Kajtar (United Kingdom), Pierre-Marie Lefeuvre (Norway/France), Santosh Nepal (Nepal), Avash Pandey (Nepal), Victoria Peck (United Kingdom)

Additional Graphics Support:

Martin Künstig (Germany), Stefanie Langsdorf (Germany)

41Technical Summary

TSTable of contents

TS.0 Introduction .............................................................................................. 42

TS.1 Framing and Context of the Report ..................................... 43

TS.2 High Mountain Areas ........................................................................ 47

TS.3 Polar Regions .......................................................................................... 51

TS.4 Sea Level Rise and Implications for

Low-lying Islands, Coasts and Communities ................. 55

TS.5 Changing Ocean, Marine Ecosystems,

and Dependent Communities .................................................... 58

TS.6 Extremes, Abrupt Changes and Managing Risks ....... 67

TS.7 Low-lying Islands and Coasts

(Integrative Cross-Chapter Box) .............................................. 69

42Technical Summary

TSTS.0 Introduction

This Technical Summary of the IPCC Special Report on Ocean and

Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) consists of the Executive

Summaries of all chapters (1–6) of the Special Report, the Executive Summary from the Integrative Cross-Chapter Box on Low-Lying Islands and Coasts, and supporting ﬁgures drawn from the chapters and the Summary for Policymakers. The Technical Summary follows the structure of the Report (Table TS.1).

Section TS.1 (Chapter 1) introduces important key concepts,

summarizes the characteristics and interconnection of ocean and

cryosphere and highlights their importance in the earth system and

for human societies in the light of climate change. TS.2 (Chapter 2) assesses changes in high mountain cryosphere and their impacts on local mountain communities and far beyond. TS.3 (Chapter 3) evaluates the state of knowledge concerning changes and impacts in the Arctic and Antarctic ocean and cryosphere systems, including challenges and opportunities for societies. TS.4 (Chapter 4) focusses

on regional and global changes in sea level, the associated risk to

low-lying islands, coasts and human settlements, and response

options. TS.5 (Chapter 5) assesses changes in the ocean and marine

ecosystems, including risks to ecosystem services and vulnerability

of the dependent communities. TS.6 (Chapter 6) examines extremes and abrupt or irreversible changes in the ocean and cryosphere in a changing climate, and identiﬁes sustainable and resilient risk management strategies. All chapters and their Executive Summaries build on ﬁndings since the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and,

whenever applicable, outcomes of the IPCC Special Report on Global

Warming of 1.5ºC (SR15) .

SROCC uses IPCC calibrated language

1 for the communication of

conﬁdence in the assessment process (see Chapter 1 and references

therein). This calibrated language is designed to consistently

evaluate and communicate uncertainties that arise from incomplete

knowledge due to a lack of information, or from disagreement about

what is known or even knowable. The IPCC calibrated language

uses qualitative expressions of conﬁdence based on the robustness

of evidence for a ﬁnding, and (where possible) uses quantitative expressions to describe the likelihood of a ﬁnding (Figure TS.1).

1 Each ﬁnding is grounded in an evaluation of underlying evidence and agreement. The summary terms for evidence are: limited, med ium or robust. For agreement, they are

low, medium or high. In many cases, a synthesis of evidence and agreement supports an assignment of conﬁdence. A level of conﬁd ence is expressed using ﬁve qualiﬁers:

very low, low, medium, high and very high, and typeset in italics, e.g., medium conﬁdence . The following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an

outcome or a result: virtually certain 99–100% probability, very likely 90–100%, likely 66–100%, about as likely as not 33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%,

exceptionally unlikely 0–1%. Additional terms (extremely likely 95–100%, more likely than not >50–100%, more unlikely than like ly 0–<50%, extremely unlikely 0–5%)

may also be used when appropriate. Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, e.g., very likely . This Report also uses the term ‘likely range’ or ‘very likely range’ to indicate

that the assessed likelihood of an outcome lies within the 17–83% or 5–95% probability range. For more details see Chapter 1, S ection 1.9.2 and Figure 1.4. Step 2: Evaluate confidenceStep 1: Evaluate evidence and agreement

Observations Theory Statistics Models Experiments Process

Evidence (type, amount, quality, consistency) Agreement High agreement

Limited evidence

(Emerging) High agreement

Medium evidence High agreement

Robust evidence

(Robust)